考点组合概率统计

基本计数原理

考什么 · What it tests

考「一共有多少种」的最底层功夫:分步用乘法、分类用加法,加上正着不好数就数反面(互补),有重叠就用容斥。
The most basic "how many ways" counting: multiply across steps, add across cases, count the complement when the direct count is hard, and use inclusion-exclusion when cases overlap.

需要先会 · Prerequisites

  • 乘法与加法 / Multiplication and addition
  • 分类讨论 / Casework
  • 集合与 Venn 图入门 / Sets and basic Venn diagrams

常见套路 · Common moves

  1. 分步乘、分类加:一件事分几步完成就把每步的选择数相乘,分成几类互不相干就相加——先判断是「步」还是「类」,是一切计数的起点。
    Multiply steps, add cases: if a task is done in stages, multiply the choices at each stage; if it splits into disjoint cases, add them — deciding "stage" vs "case" is where all counting begins.
  2. 正难则反用互补:问「至少一个」很难数时,用总数减去「一个都没有」,常一步搞定。
    When the front door is hard, use the complement: for "at least one," subtract "none at all" from the total — often a one-step finish.
  3. 有重叠用容斥:两类有交集时 AB=A+BAB|A\cup B| = |A| + |B| - |A\cap B|,别把重叠部分数两遍。
    Overlap calls for inclusion-exclusion: when two sets intersect, AB=A+BAB|A\cup B| = |A| + |B| - |A\cap B| — don't count the overlap twice.

易错点 · Common pitfalls

  • 该乘的时候加、该加的时候乘:分步骤(先选上衣再选裤子)是乘法,出题人常用措辞诱你用错。
    Adding when you should multiply and vice versa: stages (pick a top, then pants) call for multiplication, and the wording is designed to mislead you.
  • 「至少」类直接正面硬数,既漏情况又重复——看到「至少」先想互补。
    Counting "at least" head-on, both missing and repeating cases — when you see "at least," reach for the complement first.
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